President Putin of Russia is regarded as one of the best geopolitical strategist leaders of this era but even the best strategist makes a tactical mistake which usually comes with a high price as we have seen in the first days of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine where about 500 soldiers were killed and 1600 others wounded with hundreds of military hardware destroyed.
When Putin announced the military operation in Ukraine for demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, most people were caught by surprise around the world including intelligence agencies and military officials. They never expected Putin to actually declare war on Ukraine but he did.
At first, Putin’s tactic was to send in highly mobile forces in small groups not expecting to find much resistance but to the surprise of many, Ukraine soldiers were prepared to counter-attack any Russian force sent into Ukraine cities and that’s where we saw cities changing hands including the airport outside Keiv.
US, UK, and Canada training of Ukraine soldiers together with the provision of anti-tank weapons and portable air defense systems combined with media propaganda led by Ukraine president Zelensky with support of social media especially Facebook and TikTok and Western media houses encouraged many people in Ukraine including their soldiers which raised the hope of winning a war with Russia hence increasing their morale.
So the situation was not going well for the Russian highly mobile forces who had gone in small groups into Ukraine cities without any air cover, air defense systems, or with few tanks after they found themselves ambushed or bridged and bombed with anti-tank weapons which led to unnecessary loss of lives and military hardware.
Putin watched this and decided to change the entire operation and tactics used after the first 4 days of the fighting because I think he never expected that there will be a need to deploy troops to Ukraine after he called on Ukraine soldiers to put down the weapons and go home, the call which they refused and decided to fight due to propaganda that was spreading like wildfire.
Media houses and social media were flooded with stories like the lone soldier or the ghost of Keiv. A pilot with mig-29 managed to destroy 6 Russian Su-30 fighter jets over Keiv skies which were not true and more fake news like the announcement from president Zelensky that 13 soldiers on snake island were killed after refusing to surrender to Russia’s Navy which was also not true but such stories raised the morale of resistance among soldiers and population.
With sanctions coming in different forms from Western countries led by the US and media propaganda at its height, Putin decided to pose the advance for a few hours and connect the dots in order to understand what was actually happening. When military operations resumed, you could see a change in approach in speed, numbers of soldiers, and military hardware used.
Putin had adopted new tactics since then civilians were still many in cities across Ukraine and tactics were to take it slow, take it easy, encircle and force a surrender while also negotiating. The negotiations started as they analyzed the situation and things started to change on the ground when the operation resumed, the Russian troops started gaining ground, taking towns and cities and consolidating them at the same time.
After taking a town or a city, they made sure that the local authorities are no longer pro- Zelensky and that order was returned in co-operation with the police as we have seen in Kherson city in southern Ukraine.
Another tactic employed was the sending of hundreds of military vehicles and tanks from Belarus towards the capital city Kyiv. This forced Ukraine commanders and political leaders to call for re-enforcement of the capital defenses from other cities leaving them with few soldiers and exposed to Russia’s military take over.
Most of those who were left behind either put up a small resistance and were defeated or just surrendered since they were outnumbered and outgunned.
The tide of war in Ukraine is changing as Russia has so far managed to take many towns and villages including cities in Donbas and when the next military operation begins, we will likely see fierce fighting and surrender of many Ukraine soldiers.
Russia must win this war because the cost of losing it is too high to accept and when Russia wins the war, it will send shock waves around the world especially in the US and Europe since it will fundamentally change the global order with un profound consequences especially for US-led world order.
The US and its allies also understand this and they are trying to prevent it from happening without causing world war III by sending in small arms like anti-tank weapons and portable air defense systems and other military supplies which I think have come too late since Russia controls almost all ports of Ukraine and sending them through a land border and air will be risky since Russia can easily bomb them.
