Lithuania has fallen a victim of Geopolitical contest between China and the US. Lithuania is a small European country with a population of 2.8 million people and a GDP of 63 billion dollars, surely its odd for such a small country to stand up a big and a very powerful country like China with population of 1.5 billion people and a GDP of 18 trillion dollars unless there’s another big player behind Lithuania.
Lithuania wasn’t always in disagreement with China but starting with last year, Lithuania’s relations with China started to nose dive after Lithuania decided to allow Taiwan, which China claims as its own province to open its representative office in the country naming it Taiwan instead of Taipei that angered Beijing.
After the office in the name Taiwan was opened, China downgraded its relations with Lithuania to d’affairs and recalled it’s ambassador from Lithuania and called on Lithuania to correct its mistake but Lithuania insisted that it has a right to choose whom to trade with or interact with in the world. Then Lithuania evacuated its diplomats from China in fear of losing diplomatic immunity.
From then, China has unofficially blocked anything made in Lithuania which has affected its economy and its supply chain because even products with anything made in Lithuania aren’t allowed to enter Chinese market. By December last year, 90% of Lithuania’s export to China had been lost and many multinational companies from Germany and France operating Lithuania threatened to close their factories if nothing is done to improve the relationship.
Then Lithuanian president Gitanas Nauseda come out and shocked the world by admitting that allowing Taiwan to open its representative office in its own name was a big mistake and since then, Lithuania has been considering to ease tensions with China by renaming the office from Taiwan to Taiwanese people’s office but ruled out abandoning its Taiwan policy all togather.
Lithuania is a member of NATO and European Union which recognize one China policy meaning there’s one China but with different interpretation in regard to China mainland and Taiwan although Taiwan relations act in US recognises mainland China as a representative of the whole China. This has put European Union in a dailema because supporting Lithuania meaning opposing its own foreign policy but also not supporting Lithuania means European Union as a entity which works in solidarity is gone.
So EU did find one solution and that was WTO, EU took China to WTO accusing Beijing of breaking WTO trade rules. This has reduced pressure on EU to impose sanctions on China which would have automatically triggered retailation at time when EU economy which is increasingly dependent on China is trying to recover from the destruction caused by covid-19 pandemic.
Like US, Lithuania has been accusing China of coercive behaviours and with the help of the US, Lithuania is seeking political support from countries surrounding China as it tries to get more countries on board and build anti-China coalition with hope of bringing China to negotiating table. But the truth be told Lithuania’s mission is impossible because even the mighty US is straggling to build such coalition later alone a small country like Lithuania.
Lithuania foreign minister Gabrielius has visited Singapore and he is now in Australia on the same mission. It should be noticed that Australia also has trade disputes with China and Australia took China to WTO which is why Lithuania hopes to capitalize on the disagreements between China and Australia on trade to bring Australia in its orbit.
What’s interesting is that Australia is more of anti-China than Lithuania so even if Lithuanian foreign minister hadn’t visited, Australia was already happy with the fact that there was another country willing to stand up to China even though their reasons differ.
Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius says that China’s coercive behaviours must change and has accused China of trying to take over the world and change the international order to its advantages, the accusation denied by China as it calls on Lithuania to face up its objective facts, mend its ways and come back on the right track of adhering to one-China principle.
Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius visit to Singapore is meant to help Lithuania use Singapore as a gateway to South East Asia market and a way of deepening geopolitical dialogue and develop bilateral relations with the country.
Gabrielius’s reasons for visiting Australia is to discuss about China’s coercion and trade sanctions but there little Australia can do to help Lithuania because even Australia itself is fighting to gain access to Chinese market while at the sametime diversifying to new markets like India, Europe and North America.
Most of the time, its hard to find a new market with opportunities to the same standards and benefits like the Chinese market which is why many countries are afraid of losing it because once you lose it, it impossible to get it back as countries would have filled the gap.
Its safe to say that Lithuanian is on impossible mission.
